Overwhelming success predicting key outcomes and turnout in battleground states.
Citizen conducts regular research on the favorability of pro-democracy candidates, the political perspectives of American voters, and support for democracy reform.
This treasure trove of data has been critical to providing actionable insights for the midterm elections.
Citizen conducted polling with our leading-edge methodology throughout the primary and general election period to assess various races critical to democracy.
Among others, Citizen polling successes include:
Sometimes our commitment to truth and accuracy conflicts with our community’s preferences; this is important because we need to be clear-eyed to grow the pro-democracy cause. An example of this was Evan McMullin’s challenge to Senator Mike Lee in Utah. An Independent, McMullin offered an opportunity to challenge political gridlock and partisanship.
However, a poll conducted by Citizen Data on October 15-17 showed Lee (50.8%) almost nine percentage points ahead of McMullin (42.2%). A further 0.7% told us they were undecided. Unfortunately, this is very much in line with Lee’s ten percentage point victory. In contrast, another major poll fielded October 3-6 showed just a four percent lead for Lee (with 41% of Utahns supporting Lee and 37% supporting McMullin).
Based on our proprietary data, we accurately forecast turnout in eight key states ahead of the midterm elections.
It is worth noting that Alaska’s turnout exceeded expectations (at 51%, compared with our 48% forecast), likely due to their new electoral system.
The ability to forecast turnout to near-exact percentages is critical in tight campaigns. By predicting how many voters will show up at the polls, we can more accurately forecast which candidates and campaigns will prevail.
Citizen has been working closely with the campaign for Question Three in Nevada, a proposed Constitutional Amendment to employ final five voting in the state’s elections.
Our polling and modeling provided the campaign with data on levels of support, impact of campaign messaging, and potential voters to persuade and mobilize to bolster support.
The measure was successful. If it is approved again in 2024, it will significantly change the way Nevadans vote, and address the state’s primary problem.
When it comes to having confidence in data, we suggest the following:
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