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By: Lily Stockbridge and Melanie Phillips

Since its release in early 2023, Project 2025 has been a topic of growing conversation in political circles, especially as the November 2024 election approaches. Interest in the project spiked on Google in early July. Recently, the discussion has expanded beyond the political sphere, gaining traction in mainstream media and among everyday voters, especially during the September presidential debate. To gauge public opinion, Citizen Data has been monitoring how voters feel about Project 2025.

GROWING AWARENESS OF PROJECT 2025, WITH CONTINUED STRONG REJECTION

Since May 2024, the number of Americans who know about Project 2025 has significantly increased. Our research shows that voter awareness of Project 2025 increased 53 points from May (16%) to August (69%), 2024. Democrats have remained more aware of Project 2025 than others, with 23% awareness in May and 79% in August, compared with 17% of Independents in May, 69% in August, and 8% of Republicans in May and 58% in August. This is in line with the increase in media coverage we have seen across numerous news sources.

Regardless of the increase in the number of Americans familiar with Project 2025, the majority of voters remain opposed to its policies. Of those who were previously aware of Project 2025, roughly two thirds do not support the policy agenda (66% in May, 65% in August).

MAJORITY REJECT PROJECT 2025 POLICY PROPOSALS, WITH KEY DIVIDES ACROSS DEMOGRAPHICS 

Given nearly 2 in 3 voters (65%) oppose Project 2025, it is perhaps not surprising that a majority of voters consistently reject all of the main policy proposals from Project 2025.

Furthermore, despite increased messaging surrounding these policies, opposition has remained consistent (60% May, 61% August) - similar to what we see when looking at trends in overall opposition. As seen below, the most favored policy is “recognizing America as a Christian nation” with 21% support in both May and August. Perhaps unsurprisingly, those who identify with a Christian religion support this policy at the highest rate (31%) compared with other religions (12%) and those who are non-religious (5%). Additionally, only 40% of respondents who rate their religion as “very important” to their lives reject all Project 2025 policies compared with 82% of respondents who say religion is “not at all important.”

There are, however, key differences in the types of voters who are more likely to reject Project 2025. When looking at the demographic breakdowns, we find that women are 9 points more likely than men to reject all of the policy proposals. Additionally and perhaps unsurprisingly, Harris voters reject the policy proposals at much higher rates (82%) than Trump voters (30%). As seen below, we also find stark generational differences. As we continue to understand Gen Z’s complex relationship with our democracy, we see that they are the most likely to reject Project 2025 policies.

PROJECT 2025 DECREASES TRUST IN OUR DEMOCRACY FOR YOUNGER GENERATIONS

Additionally, we see similar trends when it comes to Gen Z when looking at how Project 2025 impacts voters’ trust in democracy. As seen in the visual below, this set of policy initiatives decreases Gen Z’s trust in our democracy at higher rates than other generations. We also find that Project 2025 decreases trust in our democracy at different rates depending on voters’ party affiliation in ways we might expect. For example, in August, 59% of Democrats reported that Project 2025 reduces their trust in democracy, compared with 43% of Independents and 28% of Republicans.

TRUST IN ELECTIONS LINKED TO REJECTION OF PROJECT 2025

As we might expect, we observe a strong relationship between election trust and Project 2025 support. Those who indicated that they trust our election results are significantly less likely to support the Project 2025 policies, and they indicate that Project 2025 decreases their trust in our democracy.*** Furthermore, these policies erode trust even among voters who are not likely to trust election results in 2024. This underscores that if the policies outlined in Project 2025 were put in place, they could not only erode trust among Americans who are already trusting of our elections but also among Americans who continue to waiver in their trust.

THE KEY TAKEAWAY

The concerns surrounding Project 2025 highlight the diverse perspectives Americans hold about the future of democracy. As awareness of the policy agenda has continued to increase over the last 3 months, opposition has remained consistent. Many view the policy proposals as potentially harmful to democratic values, especially the younger generations. Our research will remain focused on understanding how Project 2025’s policy proposals are perceived and what they may mean for America’s democratic principles.

Interested in more on this topic or others? We’ll be continuing to track these key indicators to provide consistent, real-time feedback on the health of American democracy. Sign up for our latest insights here.

Methodology: Citizen Data survey of 1,001 registered voters from May 14, 2024 - May 20, 2024 with a +/- 3.1% margin of error. Results were weighted on party ID, race, age, gender, and education. Citizen Data survey of 1,004 registered voters from August 20, 2024 - August 23, 2024 with a +/- 3.1% margin of error. Results were weighted on ​​party ID, race, age, and gender.

Endnotes:

***Denotes statistical significance of p = <0.00001

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