By: Cindy Mays and Grayson Wormser

As we reflect on this year’s Pride month, we wanted to take a closer look at the concerns of the LGBQ+ community to further shed light on this growing voting bloc.

LGBQ AMERICANS MORE LIKELY TO CONSIDER LEAVING THEIR STATE FOR POLITICAL REASONS

Concerningly, LGBQ Americans are 20% more likely to consider leaving their state due to political reasons compared to their heterosexual counterparts (33% vs. 13%, respectively). As seen below, there are stark differences in states that LGBQ report wanting to leave, mainly Texas, Indiana, Arizona, New York, and Florida–an indicator that it is not just a general mass exodus from particular states.

When asked about the reasons for wanting to leave, LGBQ+ individuals reported several policy areas that they don’t agree with including gun control policies (36%), LGBTQ+ right policies (33%), and inflation (31%). Indeed, many states like Florida (a state that many LGBQ say they are considering leaving according to the map above) have introduced controversial policies banning the teaching of sexual identity in public school classrooms. Further, one study found that LGBTQ+ individuals are almost 3 times more likely to be victims of gun violence than their heterosexual and cisgender counterparts.

Further, it is clear that LGBT Americans feel less accepted in their communities. In our May 2024 survey, 15% of Americans say that they would expressly not welcome at least one group of LGBT people as their neighbor. Consequently, while 57% of heterosexual Americans report feeling accepted “a lot” in their local community, only 40% of LGBQ+ Americans held the same sentiment.

LGBQ AMERICANS YOUNGER, MORE LIBERAL, AND MORE LIKELY TO VOTE BIDEN

Those who self-identify as LGBQ (11% of Americans we sampled) are more likely to be Millennial (+15%) and Gen Z (+20%), either somewhat or very liberal, and vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden for president (20% higher) than their heterosexual counterparts.

LGBQ Americans have notably different policy concerns when compared to heterosexual voters. While the top issues concerning LGBQ Americans were 1) inflation, 2) LGBTQ+ rights, and 3) abortion, heterosexual Americans considered inflation, immigration, and crime as their top three most salient issues. Further, LGBQ Americans are more likely to state that gender and sexual orientation equality were “somewhat” or “very” important. These differences emphasize both a uniting interest in addressing inflation concerns, as well as potential rising discontent in recent policy implementations curbing LGBQ+ rights in some states.

LGBQ AMERICANS MORE LIKELY TO TRUST ELECTIONS

Despite numerous obstacles, LGBQ Americans are just as willing as straight Americans to reduce division and trust the outcome of our 2024 election. In fact, LGBQ Americans are actually 5% more likely to trust the upcoming 2024 elections compared to the average voter. Further, 57% stated that they would be willing to reduce political division with others.

THE KEY TAKEAWAY

LGBQ Americans, a rapidly growing and important voting bloc, are considering relocating from their current states due to political reasons. This population movement could impact future election results, both state and nationwide.

The good news: despite a changing environment for the LGBQ community in many states, they continue to be just as willing than their fellow Americans to engage politically with the other side and trust the results of the 2024 election.

Interested in more on this topic or others? We’ll be continuing to track these key indicators to provide consistent, real-time feedback on the health of American democracy. Sign up for our latest insights here.

Methodology: Data comes from a sample of N = 1,001 registered voters during May 2024 and N = 1,000 in June 2024 as part of Citizen Data’s monthly omnibus survey. The margin of error for these surveys are +/- 3.1%. Results are weighted on Party ID, race, age, gender, and education.

Endnotes: Our sample consists of people who identify as Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual. Unfortunately, the sample size for those who identified as transgender was too small for any meaningful analysis. Further, trust in elections comes from May 2024 data and was measured by combining “no, definitely not” and “no, probably not” to create “no trust” and “yes, probably” and “yes, definitely” to create “trust.” 

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