In partnership with IPI, Citizen launched a large-scale custom survey and model to accurately understand and better predict the viability of Question 3’s passage while also providing a clear path to victory. In so doing, we also identified persuasive messaging that could move the needle among undecided voters.

Through our strategic data and insights, we were able to drive investments to the campaign and deployed targeting on the ground that enabled Question 3 to win with 53% of the vote.

Why IPI Chose Citizen Data

The Institute for Political Innovation is a cross-partisan, not-for-profit organization that contributes theory, scholarship, and strategy to catalyze political change in America.

It is leading the effort to seed and support state-based campaigns for Final-Five Voting and broadening the discussion and scholarship around political innovation.

IPI needed to determine if the reform had a viable chance to gain approval and how they could best deploy their vast knowledge and resources to bring FFV to the people of Nevada and approached Citizen for two main reasons:

1. Years of experience in the nonpartisan election reform space means best-in-class data available to bipartisan, cross-partisan, and nonpartisan efforts and advocates; and
2. In 2020, Citizen played a vital role in the successful campaign to implement a nearly identical system in Alaska.

Our expertise instilled confidence in the partner that we were the right fit to help them bring FFV to Nevada.

How Citizen Data Responded

Citizen worked quickly to determine if the campaign had legs to stand on. Within a week, we developed a custom survey and discovered that Question 3 had majority support (50.3%) with potential room to grow due to 26% of respondents being unsure.

After matching these responses to the voter file, we conducted statistical analyses to score all Nevadans on whether they are likely to support — or to be persuaded by compelling messaging to support — Question 3.

We provided those voter lists to campaign partners on the ground for tailoring their outreach tactics to ensure supporter mobilization and persuasion of undecideds.

Citizen also:

• Discovered the best way to explain the measure for maximum support;
• Tested the best messages to increase support;
• Determined the most effective messages that opponents could use so the campaign could prepare counter-messaging; and
• Identified a subset of conservative voters who were persuadable for FFV.

The Results

Multiple funders chose to invest in the campaign thanks, in part, to our research showing Question 3’s viability. Partners on the ground also used our data to mobilize a critical subset of Final-Five Voting supporters. Ultimately, the ballot measure passed, winning 53% of the vote and a key victory for electoral reform.

In Nevada, an initiated constitutional amendment requires approval in two even-numbered election years, meaning Question 3 must pass again in 2024 to amend the state’s Constitution. We look forward to potentially playing a role in ensuring Nevadans continue to hear about the benefits of Final-Five Voting and depolarize elections in the state moving forward.

Do you have a reform — or group of reforms — you’re looking to pass at the district, city, or state level? Get in touch to see how Citizen can bring these services that helped pass Question 3 in Nevada to your target area.