New National Vote by Mail Survey Results

Today, Citizen Data is releasing results of an N=30,000 national vote by mail survey conducted from September 3-8 via IVR/P2P. The survey found respondents intending to vote by mail at levels much higher than the 2016 election.

Key findings include:

35% of likely voters nationwide plan to vote by mail. (60% say they will vote in person, if available). These vote by mail levels are higher than those seen in 2016 nationwide, with the exception of the south and Indiana.

Partisanship significantly impacts vote by mail intent. Republicans are much more likely to say they’ll vote in person, if available.

Most likely voters have confidence in the USPS. However, confidence in its ability to deliver ballots is split on partisan lines.

Biden supporters are much more likely to vote by mail.

Current events, such as COVID-19, as well as state and local election administration policies, have varying effects on vote by mail likelihood. 

View the national survey results here.

These insights are part of an ongoing Citizen Data effort to support election administrators and non-partisan non-profits with the credible, unbiased data they need for strategic resource allocation in the months and weeks leading up to the election.

For this project, Citizen is partnering with a number of organizations — including the National Vote at Home Institute and the Stanford-MIT Project on a Healthy Election.