Election Day “Mirage”: Analysis

This Election Day, the most surprising thing of all might turn out to be that… it’s relatively normal.

Our team’s new analysis uses data to demonstrate that reports of a “red mirage –> blue shift” are exaggerated, and that there’s more likely to be no mirage — or, if anything, a blue one.

Consider that:

  • Most voters in battleground states will have already voted by today
  • Most states are processing ballots already, and, in some states, most vote by mail and early in-person ballots will have been counted prior to today
  • Votes that came in leading up to Election Day will prove to have been a mixed bag
  • Election Day, early in-person, and most absentee votes will be counted and subsequently reported in a very short window today

Read the full analysis here.