Election Day “Mirage”: Analysis
This Election Day, the most surprising thing of all might turn out to be that… it’s relatively normal.
Our team’s new analysis uses data to demonstrate that reports of a “red mirage –> blue shift” are exaggerated, and that there’s more likely to be no mirage — or, if anything, a blue one.
Consider that:
- Most voters in battleground states will have already voted by today
- Most states are processing ballots already, and, in some states, most vote by mail and early in-person ballots will have been counted prior to today
- Votes that came in leading up to Election Day will prove to have been a mixed bag
- Election Day, early in-person, and most absentee votes will be counted and subsequently reported in a very short window today